Tuesday, October 18, 2011

October 17, 2011

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

RETAIL SALES JUMP MOST IN 7 MONTHS
On Friday, the Commerce Department said overall U.S. retail spending improved 1.1% in September, with auto sales rising 3.6% for the month and department store sales up 1.1%. August retail sales – previously recorded as flat – were revised north to a 0.3% gain.1
                                        
UMICH SENTIMENT SURVEY SHOWS A DECLINE
The University of Michigan’s initial October consumer sentiment poll came in 57.5, under the final September reading of 59.4. As the Wall Street Journal noted, consensus forecasts expected a reading of around 60.2

GOLD & OIL REBOUND IMPRESSIVELY NYMEX crude futures rose 4.60% last week, settling at $86.80 a barrel on Friday and putting oil up 9.60% so far for October. Gold futures settled at $1,681.80 on the COMEX Friday, capping the best week for the metal since the start of September – a 2.89% five-day advance.3
                                 
DOW, NASDAQ GET BACK IN THE BLACK FOR 2011As the European Union seemingly progressed toward a solution to its debt crisis, clouds parted on Wall Street. It was a great week for U.S. equities, as these numbers show: S&P 500, +5.98% to 1,224.58; DJIA, +4.88% to 11,644.49; NASDAQ, +7.60% to 2,667.85. Friday, the CBOE VIX closed below 29 and all three of the major indices closed at 10-week highs.4,5

THIS WEEK: Wall Street teems with earnings reports. Monday, we have 3Q results from IBM, Wells Fargo, Hasbro, Charles Schwab, Gannett, Halliburton, Stanley Black & Decker and Citigroup, plus a report on September industrial output. Tuesday, we also have earnings from Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Apple, Intel, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Yahoo! and CSX, and the PPI for September comes out; additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at the Boston Fed and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies before the Senate. Wednesday offers earnings from Morgan Stanley, Western Digital, Travelers, BNY Mellon, E*TRADE, AmEx and eBay; a new Fed Beige Book comes out, the September CPI is released and we also have data on September housing starts. Thursday, 3Q results roll in from Microsoft, AT&T, Chipotle, SanDisk, Nokia, AutoNation, Eli Lilly, McGraw-Hill and Capital One, along with September’s existing home sales numbers, new initial claims figures and the Conference Board’s latest LEI. Friday, earnings reports arrive from McDonald’s, GE, Honeywell and Verizon.

% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+0.58
+4.96
-0.53
+2.46
NASDAQ
+0.56
+9.55
+2.63
+5.73
S&P 500
-2.63
+4.33
-2.07
+1.23
REAL YIELD
10/14 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.28%
0.41%
2.47%
3.50%


Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov - 10/14/114,5,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

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